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reading derivatives 04 / 05  |  perps ÷ spot  |  4 min read
04

Perps ÷ spot: who moves the price

Perp volume divided by spot volume for the same day. The higher it is, the more perp money sets the price; for small tokens with thin spot, the price can rise and fall without anyone buying or selling much spot.

Series · 5 lessonsSee perps ÷ spot on the board →How to read it; not investment advice
Flagged on the board at
25× or more, or no Binance spot
This lesson
Perps ÷ spot

In one line

Perps ÷ spot = perp volume for the day ÷ spot volume for the day. It answers one question: in which market is this token’s price actually being made? The higher the multiple, the more perp money sets the price; for tokens Binance lists only as perps, with no spot, the price is almost entirely a perp affair.

Perps ÷ spot for tokens in our reports

Why perp volume can dwarf spot

  • Leverage: spot needs real money to buy coins; perps only need part of the value as margin. The same $1M can open positions worth several million or more, and volume scales with it.
  • Easy shorting: to sell spot you need the coins, and borrowing them is a hassle; on perps, going short is as easy as going long. So bearish money crowds onto perps too.
  • Churn: opening, closing and liquidations all count as volume, so the same money can be counted many times a day.

That is why perps on large tokens normally trade 5–15 times spot. What deserves attention is a multiple far beyond that, or no spot to compare with at all.

How to read it

  1. The multiple: the board flags 25× or more, and flags tokens with no Binance spot outright.
  2. The denominator: the board divides by Binance spot; our reports sometimes divide by all spot venues combined, which is a bigger number and gives a smaller multiple. Check the denominator before comparing figures from different sources.
  3. The change: a token whose perps normally trade a few million dollars a day suddenly trading dozens or hundreds of times that says more than the multiple itself.
  4. Volume is not net buying: every trade has a buyer and a seller. Big volume means a lot of turnover, not a lot of money flowing in.

Real case: IOST, $975M in a day

IOST perps

Three days of volume in issue 005, IOST:

19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Binance perps $1.9M $106M $975M
Binance spot $0.1M $8.6M $48.4M
Upbit spot $0.2M $9.5M $56M

Perp volume on 21 October was about 500 times that of the 19th and about 20 times Binance spot the same day. The 155% rise was set off by a deposit pause for a hard fork, and the derivatives market did the pushing: shorts were packed onto the perp, spot could not be borrowed, and the price was squeezed higher (see lesson 1).

Almost no money moving on-chain: SIREN and AGT

SIREN: on-chain vs perps

Issue 004, SIREN, trades about $4.3M a day across all spot venues, and Binance perps trade about 19 times that. From noon on 15 October to the morning of the 16th, while the price doubled, net buying in the main PancakeSwap pool was only about $100,000, against $290M of perp volume over two days. On the day the price fell back to where it started, the largest single on-chain seller sold only about $50,000.

Issue 001, AGT, is more extreme: Binance does not list AGT spot, yet offers perps with up to 50× leverage. In the two hours the price doubled, 24-hour perp volume was $169M while net DEX buying over eight hours was only about $400,000, under 0.3% of perp volume. At that point $17.39M of perp OI sat on a spot order book with just $256 across the first eight ask levels.

Both cases make the same point: when spot is thin and perps are deep, the price can be pushed up and dropped back without anyone buying or selling much spot.

Common mistakes

  • “Big volume means lots of people are buying.” Volume is buyers matched with sellers; there is as much selling as buying. Big perp volume mostly means leveraged money churning through the token.
  • “Perp-driven means manipulated.” Not necessarily. It only means the price is made mainly in the perp market. Whether someone is deliberately pushing it takes open interest, long/short ratios and on-chain addresses to establish; this multiple alone cannot tell you.
  • “If nobody is selling spot, the price can’t fall.” SIREN’s fall is the counter-example: once the perp positions closed, the price went back.

Now look at the board

On the derivatives board, the “Perps ÷ spot” column is this multiple; 25× or more, or no Binance spot, turns amber. The cover’s “Perps only, no Binance spot” counts the second kind. To see what such a token has meant for positions, the liquidation calculator shows its largest adverse daily move over the last 90 days.

In short: perps ÷ spot tells you where the price is made. The higher the multiple, the more you should look at the structure of the perp market before the news or on-chain trades.

This article only explains what the measure means and how to read it. It is not investment advice and makes no buy, sell, leverage or position-size suggestions.

now look at the live dataSee perps ÷ spot on the board →

The board refreshes every 15 minutes and the wallet tracker every hour. Both describe the market only and never suggest a trade.